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What is a suburb today?

I45Tex
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby I45Tex » 14 Sep 2018 11:57

Successfully challenging urban centers for growth in a way where --
the faster we grow, the weaker we become:

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/201 ... -we-become


or a shorter take:

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/201 ... rer-we-get

Tnexster
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tnexster » 01 Jul 2019 16:20

American Suburbs Swell Again as a New Generation Escapes the City

https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-s ... 1561992889

Millennials priced out of popular big cities are flocking to Frisco, Texas, Nolensville, Tenn., Lakewood Ranch, Fla., and Scottdale, Ga.—not exactly household names but among the fastest-growing destinations in the U.S.

“The back-to-the-city trend has reversed,” said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, citing last year’s census data.

Millennials, the generation now ages 23 to 38, are no longer as rooted as they were after the economic downturn. Many are belatedly getting married and heading to the suburbs, just as their parents and grandparents did.

What is different from the postwar boom of 1950s and 1960s is that growth is far more selective—limited to suburbs blessed by good weather and good jobs, largely in the Sunbelt, where they are growing more than twice as fast as their neighboring cities, Mr. Frey said.

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The_Overdog
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby The_Overdog » 03 Jul 2019 14:34

Frisco may be a 'suburb' but it's not the same type as in the past either. Their dinky baseball stadium is more "urban" than every other stadium in DFW except the AAC and they permitted more multifamily than single family the past 2 years, and still have tons of undeveloped land.

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joshua.dodd
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby joshua.dodd » 26 Jul 2019 21:19

Frisco and Plano have become major cities in my opinion. What they now need is mass transit.

cowboyeagle05
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby cowboyeagle05 » 28 Jul 2019 15:29

Shh, they think Toyota will save them there...like when GM bought all the streetcar companies and turned them into GM Buses and then eliminated those as well.
“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell”

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tamtagon
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby tamtagon » 28 Jul 2019 16:12

cowboyeagle05 wrote:Shh, they think Toyota will save them there...like when GM bought all the streetcar companies and turned them into GM Buses and then eliminated those as well.


Uber is poised to start a whole 'nutha version of this in Dallas...

I45Tex
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby I45Tex » 04 Dec 2019 08:51

From a set of new articles on the suburban project nationwide:

https://www.curbed.com/2019/11/6/209503 ... population

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Hannibal Lecter
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Hannibal Lecter » 04 Dec 2019 10:43

https://news.gallup.com/poll/245249/ame ... untry.aspx

31% of people want to live in the 'burbs. 27% want to go rural.

Probably the folks who grew up watching Green Acres.

Big cities? It's up from just 8% in 2001, but still only 12% of people want to live the big city life.

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Cbdallas
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Cbdallas » 04 Dec 2019 11:48

Depressing from someone who still wants to see urban Dallas become insanely more dense.

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The_Overdog
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby The_Overdog » 05 Dec 2019 09:09

If you take that number to be true, then 156,000 want to live in the urban core of Dallas, which is still more than currently do. The surrounding suburbs are also under utilized for urban desirability. For example, it would be 12,000 people in Richardson (currently close to 3000), 33,000 for Plano (currently about 10k) and 25k for Irving (close to 15,000). Then Ft Worth: does it even have 15k in its urban core?

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Tucy
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tucy » 05 Dec 2019 09:30

The_Overdog wrote:If you take that number to be true, then 156,000 want to live in the urban core of Dallas, which is still more than currently do.


You cannot draw that conclusion from this survey. The survey didn't ask anything about a desire to live in an "urban core". It only asked if people desired to live in a
-big city
-small city
-suburb of a big city
-suburb of a small city
-town or
-rural area.

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The_Overdog
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby The_Overdog » 05 Dec 2019 09:55

You cannot draw that conclusion from this survey. The survey didn't ask anything about a desire to live in an "urban core". It only asked if people desired to live in a
-big city
-small city
-suburb of a big city
-suburb of a small city
-town or
-rural area.


I think you can because that is what each implies. Unless you are suggesting that everyone wants to live in either Orlando (one of the largest cities by area) or want to move to a city simply because it's population is larger than some other place, as in 12% of people want to live in Dallas because it's population is larger than Ft Worth. That the distinctions are based on density is implied.

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Tucy
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tucy » 05 Dec 2019 10:34

The_Overdog wrote:
You cannot draw that conclusion from this survey. The survey didn't ask anything about a desire to live in an "urban core". It only asked if people desired to live in a
-big city
-small city
-suburb of a big city
-suburb of a small city
-town or
-rural area.


I think you can because that is what each implies. Unless you are suggesting that everyone wants to live in either Orlando (one of the largest cities by area) or want to move to a city simply because it's population is larger than some other place, as in 12% of people want to live in Dallas because it's population is larger than Ft Worth. That the distinctions are based on density is implied.


That is a leap not warranted by the data. But, assuming you are correct, the number desiring to live in the "urban core" would be 600,000 (12% of the Dallas/Plano/Irving metropolitan division population of 5 Million), not just 156,000. (But to be clear, the survey does NOT suggest that to be the case.)

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The_Overdog
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby The_Overdog » 05 Dec 2019 11:03

That is a leap not warranted by the data. But, assuming you are correct, the number desiring to live in the "urban core" would be 600,000 (12% of the Dallas/Plano/Irving metropolitan division population of 5 Million), not just 156,000. (But to be clear, the survey does NOT suggest that to be the case.)


I don't get what you are suggesting. That 600,000 (or 1/4 the current population of Dallas and Ft Worth, since they are the 'big cities', want to live there? Thats....an interesting take.

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Tucy
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tucy » 05 Dec 2019 12:29

The_Overdog wrote:
That is a leap not warranted by the data. But, assuming you are correct, the number desiring to live in the "urban core" would be 600,000 (12% of the Dallas/Plano/Irving metropolitan division population of 5 Million), not just 156,000. (But to be clear, the survey does NOT suggest that to be the case.)


I don't get what you are suggesting. That 600,000 (or 1/4 the current population of Dallas and Ft Worth, since they are the 'big cities', want to live there? Thats....an interesting take.


12% of the population wants to live (by your leap of logic) in the urban core. The population of the Dallas-Plano-Irving metropolitan division (since Ft Worth is its own big city, it makes sense to treat the divisions separately) is 5 Million. 12% of 5 million is 600,000.

Again, in reality, the survey tells us nothing about how many people desire to live in the urban core.

cowboyeagle05
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby cowboyeagle05 » 05 Dec 2019 14:06

At the end of the day, the first lesson they teach in Statistics class is that surveys or gathered data like this can be swung in any direction depending on a lot of factors including what the lean is of the gathering body/company. Then throw in third-party interpretation by either the public aka us or another organization that believes its data is better founded in facts.
“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell”

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Brettoj
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Brettoj » 05 Dec 2019 16:53

Another interesting insight on the suburbs from the Economist.

American Poverty is Moving from the Cities to the Suburbs

https://outline.com/PpX6mT

cowboyeagle05
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby cowboyeagle05 » 06 Dec 2019 10:29

I have not read that article yet but I will say we did discuss this in college in my history of cities class. As cities have seen a resurgence in housing and gentrification the more affordable housing has become the first ring of suburbs. Places like Garland with housing that previously housed the first round of white flight. Places like West Dallas, Cedars, and Oak Cliff are enough to drive populations of people outward. What is funny is these suburbs have trouble adapting to poverty issues.
“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell”

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Hannibal Lecter
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Hannibal Lecter » 19 Jul 2020 20:28

Homebuilders just saw the strongest June sales since the last housing boom, as pandemic pushes more buyers to the suburbs

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/homebui ... -boom.html

cowboyeagle05
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby cowboyeagle05 » 20 Jul 2020 19:47

I can confirm that with apartment leasing almost every person who has moved out in the last two months has been to buy a home. Only a few ended their leases to go stay with family due to job loss. Most are couples and chased homes as fast as the could get one under contract. I will say though it's about 50% bought homes in the city like a townhome or a house in an area like East Dallas or even the M Streets while others did move to the burbs. I don't doubt homes sales are through the roof all over the DFW market.
“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell”

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TNWE
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby TNWE » 21 Jul 2020 11:27

cowboyeagle05 wrote:I can confirm that with apartment leasing almost every person who has moved out in the last two months has been to buy a home. Only a few ended their leases to go stay with family due to job loss. Most are couples and chased homes as fast as the could get one under contract. I will say though it's about 50% bought homes in the city like a townhome or a house in an area like East Dallas or even the M Streets while others did move to the burbs. I don't doubt homes sales are through the roof all over the DFW market.


East Dallas and the M-streets *are* suburbs, in all but name. Same with Lakewood/Lake Highlands, the other area where a lot of young couples are flocking. Sure, the neighborhoods are a little older than what's popping up in Frisco/Prosper, but functionally they serve the same purpose - detached houses with lawns, garages & driveways to accommodate 2+ cars, and zoned to the "good" schools. Being legally within Dallas city limits is just a fig leaf so they can sneer at the proverbial Karens in Plano with their HOAs and Applebees; all the while having their own meltdowns over trivial matters, use "historic preservation" to disguise their NIMBYism, and eat the exact same meals at Snuffers, albeit at a higher price.

It's all a big show put on by a generation too embarrassed to admit they want exactly the same things their parents wanted.

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Hannibal Lecter
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Hannibal Lecter » 21 Jul 2020 16:18

^ What makes you think they're embarrassed by it?

I45Tex
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby I45Tex » 21 Jul 2020 23:55

They're a tiny, tiny subset of the Metroplex's Millennials. Many Millennials haven't even reached the point they can afford homeownership yet, nevermind in coastal cities or the desirable relatively high-tax areas of flyover ones. We're not talking about a representative sample of The Generation obviously.

But when young people own economic advantages without any serious responsibility of noblesse oblige under that ownership, we tend to work insane hours to prove we earn our worth and *should* get the advantages of it. Or we feel the same pressures toward a pecking order of possessing worthy *good* taste that the same set within previous generations also felt. Where do both patterns of pressure, and of reasoning about your self-justification come from?

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flyswatter
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby flyswatter » 22 Jul 2020 09:16

lol at the thought that millennials are clamoring for $500k-750k+ priced homes when they can barely afford the $250k market.

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TNWE
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby TNWE » 22 Jul 2020 11:23

flyswatter wrote:lol at the thought that millennials are clamoring for $500k-750k+ priced homes when they can barely afford the $250k market.


95% of threads on this forum focus on residential, office, and retail/dining projects targeted at Millennials in the top income quartile. You don't get to turn around and dispute the very real trend of those very same Millennials heading to the suburbs by suddenly claiming "not all Millennials…" If they can afford the rents in Uptown or the new high-rises downtown, they can afford a whole lot more than $250k of house. And there's a lot of price variation within the neighborhoods mentioned - not everything in Lake highlands or the M-streets is over $500k.

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TNWE
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Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby TNWE » 22 Jul 2020 11:42

Hannibal Lecter wrote:^ What makes you think they're embarrassed by it?


The 25-35 demo (which I am a part of, but don't buy into the mindset) on social media is all about making a big show of rejecting "boomer" lifestyle and painting it as decadent and uncouth. As they've gotten older, I've started to see more and more of my friends and acquaintances quietly embrace the very elements of that "boomer lifestyle" they claimed to despise for so many years.

Anecdotally, I've seen lots of them move out to "the burbs" of Dallas, with the ones starting families specifically selecting houses zoned to Lake Highlands or Woodrow Wilson HS because of the perceived better quality. I've also seen people who love to mock the concept of "HOA Karen" actively oppose development under the guise of "historical preservation" or otherwise police their neighbors for what they say on NextDoor, as if that makes them any less of a nosey NIMBY.


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