New Census Population Estimates

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I45Tex
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby I45Tex » 01 Jun 2023 12:06

potatocoins wrote:Thanks for sharing, I'm liking what I am seeing!

Crazy to think we could surpass Chicago in the next decade. I know we can't just cherry pick a single year and make a trend out of it, but it does look like Chicago's MSA is well within reach. I'm also loving all the great growth I'm seeing for so many Texas MSA's, particularly the biggest ones (Houston, Austin, and San Antonio).

https://thetexan.news/american-airlines ... -terminal/

"Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker commented, 'We are very proud that Fort Worth-based American Airlines has signed this important agreement to cement DFW’s status as American’s main hub and help us continue to meet the incredible demand we are experiencing in North Texas. Our region will become the nation’s third largest metro region within the next 10 years, and it’s no surprise that we have the second busiest airport in the world.' "

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I45Tex
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby I45Tex » 01 Jun 2023 12:12

itsjrd1964 wrote:Collin County's population is on its way to approaching Dallas' and other key takeaways from the 2023 Texas Demographic Conference

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news ... rence.html


1.16 million
2.60 million
ON OUR WAY

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Tucy
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tucy » 01 Jun 2023 14:14

I45Tex wrote:
itsjrd1964 wrote:Collin County's population is on its way to approaching Dallas' and other key takeaways from the 2023 Texas Demographic Conference

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news ... rence.html


1.16 million
2.60 million
ON OUR WAY


Wow, that headline and article kinda exaggerated the situation, didn't it? At the current pace, they'll match Dallas County's population in 46 years!

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Addison
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Addison » 01 Jun 2023 17:14

I45Tex wrote:
potatocoins wrote:Thanks for sharing, I'm liking what I am seeing!

Crazy to think we could surpass Chicago in the next decade. I know we can't just cherry pick a single year and make a trend out of it, but it does look like Chicago's MSA is well within reach. I'm also loving all the great growth I'm seeing for so many Texas MSA's, particularly the biggest ones (Houston, Austin, and San Antonio).

https://thetexan.news/american-airlines ... -terminal/

"Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker commented, 'We are very proud that Fort Worth-based American Airlines has signed this important agreement to cement DFW’s status as American’s main hub and help us continue to meet the incredible demand we are experiencing in North Texas. Our region will become the nation’s third largest metro region within the next 10 years, and it’s no surprise that we have the second busiest airport in the world.' "


Prior to COVID, there were several airports in China (plus Dubai) well on their way to surpass the US busiest airports (Atlanta included) in terms of passenger count by leaps and bounds. And part of the reason DFW has been able to make that claim up until this point is because Texas was amongst the first states to lift its restrictions and American Airlines was the most aggressive with boosting its domestic flight scheduling/capacity.

So if I were DFW, now that the pandemic has subsided and China has finally re-opened, I wouldn't get too comfortable with that "World's 2nd Busiest Airport" bragging point.

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tnexster » 13 Jun 2023 09:44

International migration boosts Dallas population growth while locals move out
Dallas County lost over 20,000 local residents from 2021 to 2022 while the County gained about 18,000 international residents, Census estimates show

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/202 ... -move-out/

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Matt777
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Matt777 » 13 Jun 2023 14:04

That article seems kind of poorly written and thought out... in my opinion.
It looks like they edited the article and title, but originally when I read it this morning it made it sound gloomy and that we were losing local population and only gained some of it back in international migration and births. It looks like they have changed wording to accurately show that we had a small net positive increase in population for 2021.

Also, this was for 2021, during the pandemic, when people were still fleeing cities.

So if we lost some local population... and gained it back in births... and some migration... isn't that just a natural cycle and nothing to be worried about?

And domestic net-out migration "only" being offset by births... couldn't that just be high school kids graduating and going off to college elsewhere and then being offset by births? Seems natural to me, especially when you consider the thousands of graduates from premier schools like Highland Park HS and all the top tier private schools are likely not all going to SMU.

Yes, it seems like there isn't much more room for net positive domestic in-migration in Dallas County, and that could be improved, but it seems like international migration was strong adding 18,000 net positive in just one year.

Not so bad for a pandemic year in an urban county that's almost completely built out and will rely on building "up" for growth. They cite Harris county as growing faster, but Harris county is about double the square miles and encompasses tons of raw land in suburban areas that fuel easy growth. If you combined Dallas and Collin counties, the land area would be about the same as Harris, and the growth numbers combined would make Harris' look terrible.

Wake me up when 2022 numbers come out.

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DFW
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby DFW » 07 Jul 2023 22:56

United States Metro population forecast for the year 2100.
Is this for real?
https://www.movebuddha.com/blog/visuali ... ties-2100/

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby itsjrd1964 » 09 Jul 2023 02:54

DFW wrote:United States Metro population forecast for the year 2100.
Is this for real?
https://www.movebuddha.com/blog/visuali ... ties-2100/


So many things could happen between now and 2100. Miami and Houston are too prone to hurricanes and rising seas. Memphis and the west coast cities are overdue for big earthquakes. Phoenix doesn't have enough water to support a population of 22 million. That 2100 picture of Dallas is interesting, but as long as there is Love Field, there will be height restrictions. North TX would need a lot more water to accomodate 30+ million folks.

Real? Hard to tell. There might be some upsets in the list over the next decades, but I think for now, the article writer might have been puffing on a few too many fat ones.

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tnexster » 10 Jul 2023 11:32

This seems extreme in terms of population numbers but I have read things before about DFW eventually being the largest MSA in the country just because of the land available in all directions will never limit the ability of DFW to grow. Houston is similar except that the gulf limits expansion in that direction. The shift south is very real, article in DMN just this morning about it.

A profound economic shift is moving the nation’s wealth to Texas, other southern states
For the first time, fast-growing Texas, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee are contributing more to the national GDP than the Northeast.


https://www.dallasnews.com/business/eco ... rn-states/

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MC_ScattCat
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby MC_ScattCat » 11 Jul 2023 08:46

The FAA would like to have a word with that future Downtown Dallas skyline haha

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Casa Linda
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Casa Linda » 11 Jul 2023 19:17

There's no way Austin (and Phoenix) metro area can support a population boom for much longer. They have serious water supply issues, and imho are in denial.

Read the Austin "Water Forward Plan". They're going to mostly rely on re-use and reduction. Their primary supplies will continue to be Lake Travis / Buchanan via the Colorado River. Huh? Together (~50% capacity) now are holding the same as Tawakoni by itself.

It's not that Austin uses that much water, but the Colorado river is extremely unreliable. Their backup plan is to pump water into an aquifer during wet times.

The entire north Texas region has spent beyond a massive fortune over the last 65 years and has a very diverse and integrated water system- with 2 dozen raw water sources including Trinity River waste water ending up back in Lavon. NTMWD, Dallas Water, and Tarrant Water districts all cooperate and can share water.

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MC_ScattCat
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby MC_ScattCat » 12 Jul 2023 11:15

Don't forget the new lake filling up now and I'm fairly certain they are planning for another as well.

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Addison
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Addison » 12 Jul 2023 14:44

For Austin, I'd say its poor transportation infrastructure is a bigger hindrance than its water supply.

To DFW's credit, between the airport, rail lines and all the roads that have been built / under construction, it has been actively investing in sufficient capacity for decades to eventually grow into a megacity.

Austin is, in effect, just an overgrown small town that happen to hit the proverbial economic lottery.

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby IcedCowboyCoffee » 12 Jul 2023 14:53

DFW is in a peculiar position that makes it very difficult to even guess about its future. Climate change is going to hit Texas like a hammer. It's a problem that it won't be able to air condition itself out of. So the question becomes, if people begin moving northward away from the coast and to cooler climates, will Texans stop at DFW in an attempt to stay in Texas, or will everyone including Dallasites gradually shift further up and out of the state? Or maybe simply both will happen at different periods of time.

Dallas has the benefit of temperatures being a few degrees cooler than other TX metros (for whatever that's worth in a significantly hotter future), and hurricanes weaken into regular storms by the time they reach us from the coast. We're relatively well positioned with our water supply, but that's no guarantee. Heat will continue to worsen, and we'll become increasingly more prone to flash flooding in dry periods.

Even setting climate change aside I think a prediction made 100 years ago for the top metros in the country a century later would have been talking about very different cities than what is actually there now. Places rise and plateau or fall. The boom times don't last forever, not for any place.

Edit: And just to be clear, I'm not pontificating about some sort of imagined dystopian mass exodus leaving behind completely empty Texas cityscapes. There will always be people living in all of these places. But what that life will be like in these cities and whether people will want to voluntarily relocate to Texas any longer is hard to say with any certainty.
Last edited by IcedCowboyCoffee on 12 Jul 2023 15:18, edited 1 time in total.

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The_Overdog
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby The_Overdog » 12 Jul 2023 15:09

Way hotter places than DFW have sustained populations for thousands of years. I'm sure climate change will suck for TX, but it's not even comparable to Florida, and it seems people all over the world would rather sweat than freeze. Of course I don't believe any 100 year projections, but I also don't believe DFW Is going to empty because it gets hotter.

Density decreases water use dramatically (and makes hot climates more bearable) so Austin and Dallas have no where to go but up.

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby IcedCowboyCoffee » 12 Jul 2023 15:42

The_Overdog wrote:Way hotter places than DFW have sustained populations for thousands of years. I'm sure climate change will suck for TX, but it's not even comparable to Florida, and it seems people all over the world would rather sweat than freeze. Of course I don't believe any 100 year projections, but I also don't believe DFW Is going to empty because it gets hotter.

The difference I would say is that it has never been easier in human history to relocate, and it's a even easier task if it's simply relocation within the same country. There is very very little actually holding people to Texas and it would not take much to tip the scales of migration outward if midwestern states create conditions favorable to it.

All I'm saying is when the midwest's climate changes to more closely resemble the Texas climate we grew up with and Texas begins getting locked into an absurdly high wet-bulb temperature all summer long, the appeal of moving out of Texas will increase and the appeal of moving in will decrease, and there's nothing stopping the midwest from becoming just the next economic gravitational center like the south has enjoyed being. It's part and parcel of living in such a massive country. The dominance of one area is unlikely to last. These things always move in cycles and there is no shortage of cheap land up there either.

It will become an easier argument to make in relocating employees if the winters in the midwest suddenly become milder and you can guarantee one's kids can enjoy playing outside most days of the year; to say nothing of access to the greatest source of fresh water on the planet.

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Hannibal Lecter » 12 Jul 2023 16:34

A couple years ago I saw a world map that tried to project the effects of climate change on a local level. Surprisingly, northeast Texas was one of very few areas where they projected a slightly cooler, wetter climate, similar to central Louisiana today.

Of course there are 10,000 different maps, none of which agree with each other.

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Addison
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Addison » 12 Jul 2023 17:36

On the climate change front, we can speculate over what the future will bring until we're blue in the face. But interestingly enough, there's actually a fair amount of empircal evidence over the past 40 years that the frequency of tornado outbreaks in DFW has decreased markedly, which is a positive thing.

Much of the action has shifted eastward to the area coined Dixie Alley.
Last edited by Addison on 14 Jul 2023 10:40, edited 1 time in total.

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Casa Linda
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Casa Linda » 14 Jul 2023 08:46

https://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide is your friend.

Austin has exactly 1 primary water source, the Colorado river. They're at 50% capacity and I wouldn't even call what they're seeing a bad drought. They don't have an aquifer like San Antonio, the western US, or Texas pan handle.

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I45Tex
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby I45Tex » 14 Jul 2023 12:16

Addison wrote:On the climate change front, we can speculate over what the future will bring until we're blue in the face. But interestingly enough, there's actually a fair amount of empircal evidence over the past 40 years that the frequency of tornado outbreaks in DFW has decreased markedly, which is a positive thing.

Much of the action has shifted eastward to the area coined Dixie Alley.


Increasing in the Great Lakes states, right?

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I45Tex
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby I45Tex » 14 Jul 2023 12:37

IcedCowboyCoffee wrote:The difference I would say is that it has never been easier in human history to relocate, and it's a even easier task if it's simply relocation within the same country. There is very very little actually holding people to Texas


Point taken. The general problem with professional mobility at the family level is that you don't belong in places that don't have a lot of professional mobility in general. You don't belong both secondarily because you don't find a lot of turnover in employment opportunities in your field there, and primarily because the places that are marinating are more culturally focused on their own sense of place (parochialism is a double edged sword, both bad and good).

If I also will only reside for any length of time in the same places where other people of greater professional than cultural habits belong, then I only get to live a relatively lite life, which skims the sense of place, local pace, local characters and local tastes, rites of passage -- the great and the ugly -- and accountability/belonging off (along with some of the squirminess of small town habits and compromises) in exchange for homogenized quality of life. You know, in the end, I don't like dieting for my LinkedIn account's or my entertainment intake's sakes any more than the next guy.

All I'm saying is ...

there's nothing stopping the midwest from becoming just the next economic gravitational center like the south has enjoyed being. It's part and parcel of living in such a massive country. The dominance of one area is unlikely to last. These things always move in cycles and there is no shortage of cheap land up there either.


For sure. Couldn't agree more. Too many arguments for our regulatory exceptionalism assume that we can keep the tide of innovation in our favor economically with the right subsidies. Ain't gonna happen, politicrats and policy enthusiasts. And/but anyhow there's more to life, just like there's more to knowledge than just what's being digitized. Good thing but we'll make the best of it either way, Lord willing.

It will become an easier argument to make in relocating employees if the winters in the midwest suddenly become milder and you can guarantee one's kids can enjoy playing outside most days of the year; to say nothing of access to the greatest source of fresh water on the planet.

And the winters are currently their last respite from the biting flies, deer ticks, and Lyme Disease at every yard. Eesh, horrorsville.

I'm going to say that what people like about Florida and the Sunbelt isn't just the lack of snow, but the lack of dimness. Hate the grey dimness. I'm not going to move to the Altiplano* of the Andes so I'm not going to find any place to live of any population at all in this country that are cooler than Texas' places without having to put up with dim light.

* IIRC there are only 1 or 2 micropolitan statistical areas of more than 50K people above 6,500 feet elevation in this country, and 1 MSA (Santa Fe NM, population 150K), whereas in South America you can find true cities above 10,000 and even 12,000 feet above sea level.
Last edited by I45Tex on 14 Jul 2023 12:52, edited 5 times in total.

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Addison
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Addison » 14 Jul 2023 12:41

I45Tex wrote:
Addison wrote:On the climate change front, we can speculate over what the future will bring until we're blue in the face. But interestingly enough, there's actually a fair amount of empircal evidence over the past 40 years that the frequency of tornado outbreaks in DFW has decreased markedly, which is a positive thing.

Much of the action has shifted eastward to the area coined Dixie Alley.


Increasing in the Great Lakes states, right?


Not sure about the Great Lakes.

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MC_ScattCat
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby MC_ScattCat » 17 Jul 2023 15:51

I45Tex wrote:Hate the grey dimness.

I grew up in the midwest. The cold windy grey days with no snow or rain is depressing! I don't miss that at all even with this heat. My first summer was 2011 which was a doozy. It's hot but I got used to it.

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Addison
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Addison » 17 Jul 2023 16:35

MC_ScattCat wrote:
I45Tex wrote:Hate the grey dimness.

I grew up in the midwest. The cold windy grey days with no snow or rain is depressing! I don't miss that at all even with this heat. My first summer was 2011 which was a doozy. It's hot but I got used to it.


I'm from Detroit, and you got that right about the excessive cloudy weather being depressing.

I'll take the heat any time!

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby The_Overdog » 18 Jul 2023 09:21

I've lived in Texas long enough that I can take or leave the sun, like cloudy days (especially in the summer) and don't mind grey winter days because we don't get that many of them. The lack of afternoon clouds in the summer is what makes southern CA weather horrible for me. Just relentlessly sunny.

Heck, the spring clouds that look like snowy mountains are one of my favorite features.

Though I don't really mind the heat either. If it was a just a few degrees cooler in the mornings in July and August, I'd call the Dallas weather pretty good overall.

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Tucy
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tucy » 24 Jul 2023 17:31

IcedCowboyCoffee wrote:DFW is in a peculiar position that makes it very difficult to even guess about its future. Climate change is going to hit Texas like a hammer. It's a problem that it won't be able to air condition itself out of. So the question becomes, if people begin moving northward away from the coast and to cooler climates, will Texans stop at DFW in an attempt to stay in Texas, or will everyone including Dallasites gradually shift further up and out of the state? Or maybe simply both will happen at different periods of time.

Dallas has the benefit of temperatures being a few degrees cooler than other TX metros (for whatever that's worth in a significantly hotter future), and hurricanes weaken into regular storms by the time they reach us from the coast. We're relatively well positioned with our water supply, but that's no guarantee. Heat will continue to worsen, and we'll become increasingly more prone to flash flooding in dry periods.


The idea that people fleeing north to escape heat will stop in Dallas is hilarious. They may stop in Dallas until June, and then say, what the hell, they said it would be cooler here! ;)

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby IcedCowboyCoffee » 24 Jul 2023 17:46

Tucy wrote:The idea that people fleeing north to escape heat will stop in Dallas is hilarious. They may stop in Dallas until June, and then say, what the hell, they said it would be cooler here! ;)

Well some Texans are incredibly stubborn! :lol: Hell or high water they'll keep their boots on Texas soil, but the flooding issues of HTX or the water issues of ATX/SA down south might be enough reason to pull up the tent stakes and scoot north just a lil bit. :D

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby The_Overdog » 25 Jul 2023 09:49

water issues of ATX/SA down south might be enough reason to pull up the tent stakes and scoot north just a lil bit.

I'm not sure I agree Austin has water issues. Dallas' area's piping for water stretches for like 80 miles. I think Austin can find some water in an 80 mile radius.

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Casa Linda
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Casa Linda » 29 Jul 2023 12:08

The_Overdog wrote:
water issues of ATX/SA down south might be enough reason to pull up the tent stakes and scoot north just a lil bit.

I'm not sure I agree Austin has water issues. Dallas' area's piping for water stretches for like 80 miles. I think Austin can find some water in an 80 mile radius.


What new water source do you think is within 80 miles of Austin?

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby tamtagon » 30 Jul 2023 08:50

I'd like to see a desalination system worked out for all of South Texas

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tnexster » 31 Jul 2023 09:43

tamtagon wrote:I'd like to see a desalination system worked out for all of South Texas


I sat in on a presentation on water in Texas recently and desalinization was definitely on the table for the coast but there is an issue around what to do with the salt. You can't just dump it back in the ocean from what I understand. They also mentioned one reservoir being built around San Antonio and Austin and I believe it is the last one that is being considered in Texas. North Texas is in remarkable shape all things considered.

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby IcedCowboyCoffee » 31 Jul 2023 11:57

Tnexster wrote:
tamtagon wrote:I'd like to see a desalination system worked out for all of South Texas


I sat in on a presentation on water in Texas recently and desalinization was definitely on the table for the coast but there is an issue around what to do with the salt. You can't just dump it back in the ocean from what I understand. They also mentioned one reservoir being built around San Antonio and Austin and I believe it is the last one that is being considered in Texas. North Texas is in remarkable shape all things considered.


Yeah, that's the tricky part. The process is power intensive but problems of power are always (expensively) solvable through scaling up.
But the byproduct of desalination is a problem with no easy solution. If you dump the brine back into the ocean you create a massive dead zone where nothing can live because the water there becomes hyper-concentrated (which also creates a problem if you end up re-desalinating the hyper-concentrated brine water that you just dumped into the ocean).
If you try to store the brine over land then you also create a deadzone by quite literally salting the earth. And desalination creates a LOT of brine that has to go somewhere, so we can't possibly create storage containers for it all if we end up dependent on it.
It really drives home just how critical every freshwater source is.

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Tucy
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tucy » 31 Jul 2023 13:02

IcedCowboyCoffee wrote:
Tnexster wrote:
tamtagon wrote:I'd like to see a desalination system worked out for all of South Texas


I sat in on a presentation on water in Texas recently and desalinization was definitely on the table for the coast but there is an issue around what to do with the salt. You can't just dump it back in the ocean from what I understand. They also mentioned one reservoir being built around San Antonio and Austin and I believe it is the last one that is being considered in Texas. North Texas is in remarkable shape all things considered.


Yeah, that's the tricky part. The process is power intensive but problems of power are always (expensively) solvable through scaling up.
But the byproduct of desalination is a problem with no easy solution. If you dump the brine back into the ocean you create a massive dead zone where nothing can live because the water there becomes hyper-concentrated (which also creates a problem if you end up re-desalinating the hyper-concentrated brine water that you just dumped into the ocean).
If you try to store the brine over land then you also create a deadzone by quite literally salting the earth. And desalination creates a LOT of brine that has to go somewhere, so we can't possibly create storage containers for it all if we end up dependent on it.
It really drives home just how critical every freshwater source is.


Interesting. Here's an article about tan MIT proposal to solve the problem.

https://news.mit.edu/2019/brine-desalia ... oxide-0213

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tamtagon
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby tamtagon » 12 Aug 2023 20:21

Why don't they just boil the salt water, separate the water from minerals, harvest both?

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CTroyMathis
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby CTroyMathis » 12 Aug 2023 21:22

See also: US Submarines. Of course, convenience factor: already out to sea to disperse the extra conveniently as necessary. What a flashback.

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tamtagon
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby tamtagon » 12 Aug 2023 21:59

Maybe focus on extracting the minerals, and fresh water is the byproduct. Would you cook with fresh Gulf Sea Salt?

There's gold in sea water, right?

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Hannibal Lecter
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Hannibal Lecter » 30 Aug 2023 20:34

^ See "The Man Who Ploughed the Sea" by Arthur C. Clarke (1957).

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Hannibal Lecter » 20 Nov 2023 21:17

With 8 million residents, D-FW is largest Texas metro, Texas Demographic Center estimates

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro area could now be home to more than 8 million people, according to the latest Texas Demographic Center population estimates.

As of Jan. 1, D-FW for the first time had an estimated 8,060,528 inhabitants. The D-FW area was responsible for 36% of Texas’ population growth in the last three years by adding over 423,000 inhabitants in that period, according to data released this month.

“The four metropolitan areas that we call the Texas Triangle are now 20.5 [million] people,” said Cullum Clark, director of the Bush Institute-SMU Growth Initiative. “So it’s just over two-thirds of all the people in the state and clearly growing faster than the rest of the state.”

....

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/texas/2 ... estimates/

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby IcedCowboyCoffee » 11 Mar 2024 13:44

Looks like the media will be getting access to the new metro/city numbers tomorrow. We should see them on Thursday.

I'd expect to see much of what we're familiar with since the state's numbers were strong again.

Edit: My bad, should be county numbers we're getting.

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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby IcedCowboyCoffee » 14 Mar 2024 09:05

"More Counties Saw Population Gains in 2023"
“Domestic migration patterns are changing, and the impact on counties is especially evident,” said Lauren Bowers, chief of the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Branch. “Areas which experienced high levels of domestic out-migration during the pandemic, such as in the Midwest and Northeast, are now seeing more counties with population growth. Meanwhile, county population growth is slowing down out west, such as in Arizona and Idaho.”
...
On average, counties in the South experienced faster growth in 2023 than in 2022. Among its 1,422 counties, the average annual change was 0.56%, up from 0.31% the prior year. Approximately 67% (950) of the counties in the region experienced population gains in 2023, up from 59% (836) in 2022.

The West, whose average population change ranked highest among the four regions in 2022, fell behind the South in 2023. The average annual change among the region's 449 counties slowed from 0.51% to 0.34%.

- https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/population-estimates-more-counties-population-gains-2023.html

It's the same good news-bad news for Dallas.
Dallas county grew by only about 4,300 people, and it had some of the highest net domestic out-migration in the country. We had enough births and international migration to offset the loss and remain positive, but we still haven't recovered from the population loss of 2020-2021.

2020-2021: -22,012
2021-2022: +12,886
2022-2023: +4,365
mig2023b.jpg



All is sunny in the rest of the metroplex with DFW taking the top spot again. Tarrant county really strong again.
cens23b.jpg

cens23c.jpg


I'm going to keep digging into the numbers today and I'll share anything interesting.
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The_Overdog
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby The_Overdog » 14 Mar 2024 09:18

Dallas county grew by only about 4,300 people, and it had some of the highest net domestic out-migration in the country.


There was a twitter post by a Dallas developer recently that said only 2000 of the 20,000 apartment units delivered last year were in Dallas - like only 6 buildings. I'll see if I can find it.

itsjrd1964
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby itsjrd1964 » 15 Mar 2024 06:28

I wonder how much longer it will be before DFW pulls ahead of Philadelphia (general population size) and San Francisco (media market size).

Tnexster
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tnexster » 15 Mar 2024 10:54

itsjrd1964 wrote:I wonder how much longer it will be before DFW pulls ahead of Philadelphia (general population size) and San Francisco (media market size).


It's amazing that in a sea of runaway growth Dallas sits in neutral and has for years if not decades. What does that say about Dallas? Home values are up but how many new homes do you actually see getting built within the city limits? As a region, DFW will eventually be on top of the nation while Dallas sits at roughly the same population. There is nothing out there to suggest the city has a plan or the will to do what they need to do to change it.

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IcedCowboyCoffee
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby IcedCowboyCoffee » 15 Mar 2024 11:00

We don't have the city numbers yet (probably in June), but I thought it might be interesting to make a wild guesstimate as to whether Fort Worth has passed Austin yet:

(I know small portions of Fort Worth lay outside Tarrant county and that small portions of Austin lay outside Travis county so this math isn't exactly great, but for the fun of the thought experiment just roll with it :P )


Fort Worth's 2022 estimate: 956,709
Austin's 2022 estimate: 974,447
ATX larger than FTW by 17,738 people.

So,
In 2022 Tarrant County grew by 25,951 and the city of Fort Worth grew by 19,170. So Fort Worth accounted for 74% of Tarrant county's growth.
In the new 2023 estimates Tarrant county grew by 27,301. 74% of that growth would suggest Fort Worth might have grown by 20,167 which would put FTW's new population at 976,876.

In 2022, Travis county grew by 18,682 and Austin grew by 5,104. So Austin accounted for only 27% of Travis county's growth.
In 2023, Travis county grew by only 7,411. 27% of that growth would suggest Austin might have grown by only 2,025 which would put ATX's new population at 976,472.

Using these numbers:
Fort Worth's 2023 fake estimate: 976,876
Austin's 2023 fake estimate: 976,472
FTW possibly larger than ATX by 404 people.


Even if this imaginary math is wonky I think the difference between the two cities is going to be razor thin considering how little Travis county seemingly grew in 2023. So it's really genuinely possible we might be hearing in a few months that Fort Worth has become larger than Austin which is just so fascinating to me. I'm rooting for our chill neighbors.

FTW's real competition is Jacksonville Florida. They're in a race to see who will become the tenth city with 1 million people.
They both have strong growth rates and both are about to jump past Austin. Jacksonville's population is slightly larger than FTW's, but FTW's growth rate is faster. The issue with Jacksonville though its city limits are twice the size of Fort Worth's, which makes the comparison goofy on the face of it and is why comparing metro areas is far more informative. I don't know much about Jacksonville so for all I know a bunch of that growth is due mostly to annexation. (Edit: looks like the Jacksonville MSA has a strong growth rate so it's not just annexation)
But FTW/ATX having roughly the same land areas is partly why I find that particular comparison interesting.

Tnexster wrote:
itsjrd1964 wrote:I wonder how much longer it will be before DFW pulls ahead of Philadelphia (general population size) and San Francisco (media market size).


It's amazing that in a sea of runaway growth Dallas sits in neutral and has for years if not decades. What does that say about Dallas? Home values are up but how many new homes do you actually see getting built within the city limits? As a region, DFW will eventually be on top of the nation while Dallas sits at roughly the same population. There is nothing out there to suggest the city has a plan or the will to do what they need to do to change it.

While I don't think it would actually play out this way, if Dallas county remains stagnant long enough and Tarrant county holds on to this sort of growth, it would only take 15-20 years for Tarrant to pass Dallas. I don't think that would ever happen, but it's wild to imagine.
Last edited by IcedCowboyCoffee on 15 Mar 2024 12:14, edited 1 time in total.

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IcedCowboyCoffee
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby IcedCowboyCoffee » 15 Mar 2024 12:08

In the list of 1,823 U.S. counties with populations over 20k, these are where the DFW counties sit when ranked by growth rate:

1st. Kaufman County (+7.58% / +13,079) - Previous year: 2nd +9.03%
2nd. Rockwall County (+6.46% / +7,965) - Previous year: 5th +5.77%
8th. Ellis County (+4.95% / +10,506) - Previous year: 23rd +4.5%
16th. Parker County (+4.55% / +7,556) - Previous year: 7th +5.63%
17th. Hunt County (+4.53% / +4,909) - Previous year: 16th +4.68%
19th. Wise County (+4.27% / +3,200) - Previous year: 36th +4.21%
36th. Johnson County (+3.79% / +7,410) - Previous year: 32nd +4.26%
58th. Collin County (+3.14% / +36,364) - Previous year: 47th +3.98%
64th. Denton County (+3.06% / +29,943) - Previous year: 52nd +3.59%
361st. Tarrant County (+1.27% / +27,301) - Previous year: 373rd +1.22%
1083rd. Dallas County (+0.17% / +4,365) - Previous year: 700th + 0.53%

The Sherman-Denison MSA was the 13th fastest growing Metropolitan Area in the U.S. at +2.58% and +3,709 people. They are just shy of 150,000.

Tnexster
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tnexster » 16 Mar 2024 13:02

The Depressing Reality About Dallas in the New U.S. Census Numbers
While 8.1 million people now live in North Texas, people continue to flee Dallas County.

https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2 ... s-numbers/

Dallas County added about 4,300 people in 2023, only because there were about twice as many births as there were deaths. Last year, more people decided to leave Dallas County than those who moved here. The most populous county in North Texas lost more existing residents than all but seven other counties in the nation. The domestic migration numbers are particularly depressing: 34,330 U.S. residents packed up and left. Luckily, about 19,000 people moved here from other counties, making Dallas’ loss 15,057. The 39,000 babies who were born last year is the only reason the county had any population growth.


As the Bush Institute’s Cullum Clark wrote last year in the Dallas Morning News, Frisco built seven times the amount of housing units as the city of Dallas from 2015 and 2022. He cites that city’s “exemplary” housing policies, and a “streamlined” and “efficient” permitting and zoning processes.

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I45Tex
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby I45Tex » 16 Mar 2024 18:20

It is (unfortunately or not) totally normal in the labor market for cities that are valuable/expensive relative to the surrounding region to serve as "finishing schools."

These locations import recent graduates or recent immigrants and export "fleeing" established midcareer professionals who have been developing a network with job opportunities elsewhere. In many cases, living in that location has helped them to start to get the opportunity to save more money every year than they could if they stay there. Put that way, it's a specialized role that such central land can still be successful at once it has priced itself out of the greenfield subdivision competition.

I am not saying I desire to live in such an "up or out" lifestyle environment but I am saying that coastal metro core counties have been this way (driving net domestic outmigration) for decades without it being a sign of impending economic doom. I also don't believe that the greenfield subdivision suburbs are signs of economic viability either. They don't and can't generate enough of those midcareer professionals to sustain themselves, so they are on life support until they develop their own industrial base.

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tamtagon
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby tamtagon » 16 Mar 2024 20:37

The city of Dallas has more than enough potential to grow population south of the river, it really should be a municipal priority. Go ahead and annex land like all the other cities do.

I've always liked the idea of Irving merging into Dallas.
;)

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I45Tex
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby I45Tex » 17 Mar 2024 18:20

Me too but I think that that's the very last merger they would agree to.

Irving would probably prefer to keep its name and merge with some less-well-known fish, not be swallowed by the big fish. Irving + Coppell + Carrollton would (est. 431K in July 2022) be more populous than Arlington is.

Irving + Coppell + Carrollton + Lewisville (562K) would be the most populous suburb in America, 10% more populous than current recordholder Mesa AZ with the same population density (both at 3,630 per sq. mi.). Just for example.

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CTroyMathis
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby CTroyMathis » 17 Mar 2024 18:54

Arlington-Grand Prairie would be a hell of a wild merger, though. Not that it should happen, but, since we're on the tangent.