We don't have the city numbers yet (probably in June), but I thought it might be interesting to make a wild guesstimate as to whether Fort Worth has passed Austin yet:
(I know small portions of Fort Worth lay outside Tarrant county and that small portions of Austin lay outside Travis county so this math isn't exactly great, but for the fun of the thought experiment just roll with it
)Fort Worth's 2022 estimate: 956,709
Austin's 2022 estimate: 974,447
ATX larger than FTW by 17,738 people. So,
In 2022 Tarrant County grew by 25,951 and the city of Fort Worth grew by 19,170. So Fort Worth accounted for 74% of Tarrant county's growth.
In the new 2023 estimates Tarrant county grew by 27,301. 74% of that growth would suggest Fort Worth might have grown by 20,167 which would put FTW's new population at
976,876.
In 2022, Travis county grew by 18,682 and Austin grew by 5,104. So Austin accounted for only 27% of Travis county's growth.
In 2023, Travis county grew by only 7,411. 27% of that growth would suggest Austin might have grown by only 2,025 which would put ATX's new population at
976,472.
Using these numbers:
Fort Worth's 2023 fake estimate: 976,876
Austin's 2023 fake estimate: 976,472
FTW possibly larger than ATX by 404 people.Even if this imaginary math is wonky I think the difference between the two cities is going to be razor thin considering how little Travis county seemingly grew in 2023. So it's really genuinely possible we might be hearing in a few months that Fort Worth has become larger than Austin which is just
so fascinating to me. I'm rooting for our chill neighbors.
FTW's real competition is Jacksonville Florida. They're in a race to see who will become the tenth city with 1 million people.
They both have strong growth rates and both are about to jump past Austin. Jacksonville's population is slightly larger than FTW's, but FTW's growth rate is faster. The issue with Jacksonville though its city limits are twice the size of Fort Worth's, which makes the comparison goofy on the face of it and is why comparing metro areas is far more informative. I don't know much about Jacksonville so for all I know a bunch of that growth is due mostly to annexation. (Edit: looks like the Jacksonville MSA has a strong growth rate so it's not just annexation)
But FTW/ATX having roughly the same land areas is partly why I find that particular comparison interesting.
Tnexster wrote:itsjrd1964 wrote:I wonder how much longer it will be before DFW pulls ahead of Philadelphia (general population size) and San Francisco (media market size).
It's amazing that in a sea of runaway growth Dallas sits in neutral and has for years if not decades. What does that say about Dallas? Home values are up but how many new homes do you actually see getting built within the city limits? As a region, DFW will eventually be on top of the nation while Dallas sits at roughly the same population. There is nothing out there to suggest the city has a plan or the will to do what they need to do to change it.
While I don't think it would actually play out this way, if Dallas county remains stagnant long enough and Tarrant county holds on to this sort of growth, it would only take 15-20 years for Tarrant to pass Dallas. I don't think that would ever happen, but it's wild to imagine.