Dallas Fort Worth Urban Forum

New Census Population Estimates

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I45Tex
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby I45Tex » 08 Feb 2021 17:16

Thing is, a growing population of people who aren't in the workforce (retirees, in the case of Florida and Arizona) is not sustainable growth. Phoenix and Miami's office markets are a fraction per capita of ours because more of the job growth is in services/tourism. Exodus from SoCal and Chicagoland, in Arizona's case, and from Chicago and NYC in Florida's, are Phoenix and Miami's best chance to get some primary industries and employers to start moving there for real. Unless there are even more people willing to buy out these retirees' homes at more than they're paying for them right now (and the demographics make that extremely unlikely -- Baby Boomers currently have more net worth than all other generations ahead of and behind them combined), the housing prices will drop just as the maintenance bills start coming due. And when you have a subdivision of 5,000 homes all built simultaneously, deferred maintenance on a depreciating neighborhood risks a bad outcome.

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Addison
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Addison » 08 Feb 2021 18:36

I45Tex wrote:Thing is, a growing population of people who aren't in the workforce (retirees, in the case of Florida and Arizona) is not sustainable growth. Phoenix and Miami's office markets are a fraction per capita of ours because more of the job growth is in services/tourism. Exodus from SoCal and Chicagoland, in Arizona's case, and from Chicago and NYC in Florida's, are Phoenix and Miami's best chance to get some primary industries and employers to start moving there for real. Unless there are even more people willing to buy out these retirees' homes at more than they're paying for them right now (and the demographics make that extremely unlikely -- Baby Boomers currently have more net worth than all other generations ahead of and behind them combined), the housing prices will drop just as the maintenance bills start coming due. And when you have a subdivision of 5,000 homes all built simultaneously, deferred maintenance on a depreciating neighborhood risks a bad outcome.


The main thing driving the growth rates in Florida and Arizona are the (relatively) low property taxes, and the better access to recreational opportunities.

This is anecdotal, but I've heard from real estate agents in DFW that they've dealt with a number of folks who were strongly considering DFW and then got sticker shock once they saw the property taxes and decided against moving here.

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I45Tex
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby I45Tex » 08 Feb 2021 22:54

That's good info. I just think that that decision point will change real fast if it ever looks like people buying there would end up selling at a loss. Having a normal economic base is a hedge against that.

Compared to North Texas, right now Arizona still does not have a comparable small business innovation ecosystem nor a comparable set of established employers outside of hospitals and hospitality (for instance, AZ's top three publicly traded companies by revenue are #169, 221, and 305 in the Fortune 500).

In South Florida, population roughly seven million, similar to the entire state population in Arizona, the highest ranked are much higher -- but not strong, either: #91 World Fuel Services, #147 Lennar homebuilders, #154 Autonation.

https://fortune.com/fortune500/2020/search/?hqstate=AZ

https://fortune.com/fortune500/2020/search/?hqstate=FL

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tamtagon
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby tamtagon » 09 Feb 2021 05:39

I have never thought about the affect of retirement population in such a way before....

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The_Overdog
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby The_Overdog » 09 Feb 2021 09:25

Is DFW really that different though? I personally know of 6 100+ unit age 55+ apartment complexes in Plano under or nearing construction, 3 in Richardson, 2 in Lewisville, and 1 in Far North Dallas. How many in Irving, or the rest of Dallas and Ft Worth? They basically fly under the radar so they are approved nearly everywhere, don't carry the negative connotations of regular apartments, and are more politically ideologically consistent voters (at least in Texas). It's a real market segment and is growing.

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jetnd87
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby jetnd87 » 09 Feb 2021 10:08

I agree that segment / trend isn't absent here, but the business-driven growth is likely more substantial, just based on F1000 presence alone, not to mention SMBs and service firms.

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CTroyMathis
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby CTroyMathis » 09 Feb 2021 13:24

I get the feeling that DFW's 55+ build trends are a little more of a natural evolution and dotted across the region vice the Sun City, AZ purpose-built 55+ mini-city or other places not so master-planned yet heavily dotted throughout Maricopa County or South Florida.

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I45Tex
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby I45Tex » 03 May 2021 20:26

In the morning we can check for the Census' 7/2020 estimates of county and Metro Statistical Area populations. I haven't heard when the official 4/1/2020 counts of MSAs will be released. I believe tomorrow's figures are not based upon them but will be revised later once the counts are out.

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tamtagon
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby tamtagon » 03 May 2021 21:03

Will there be a recount?
Haha

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I45Tex
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby I45Tex » 04 May 2021 11:56

I haven't had time to look but here's the new data:

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys ... areas.html

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THRILLHO
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby THRILLHO » 04 May 2021 15:55

That data suggests that DFW again had the largest growth in number of people with 119,748 new folks. The previous year it was 117,380.

Phoenix grew by 106,008.

Houston grew by 91,078.

Chicago apparently shrunk by 47,644, so our gap with them is continuing to shrink.

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Addison
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Addison » 04 May 2021 16:52

THRILLHO wrote:That data suggests that DFW again had the largest growth in number of people with 119,748 new folks. The previous year it was 117,380.

Phoenix grew by 106,008.

Houston grew by 91,078.

Chicago apparently shrunk by 47,644, so our gap with them is continuing to shrink.


These estimates should be viewed with hefty skepticism, given the significant gap between the estimates for the states and official state numbers that were released last next.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washin ... utType=amp

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Addison
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Addison » 04 May 2021 16:53

I45Tex wrote:In the morning we can check for the Census' 7/2020 estimates of county and Metro Statistical Area populations. I haven't heard when the official 4/1/2020 counts of MSAs will be released. I believe tomorrow's figures are not based upon them but will be revised later once the counts are out.


I last heard the official numbers will be released August 16th.

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THRILLHO
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby THRILLHO » 04 May 2021 17:30

Addison wrote:These estimates should be viewed with hefty skepticism, given the significant gap between the estimates for the states and official state numbers that were released last next.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washin ... utType=amp

If anything this makes me more skeptical of the accuracy of the official count rather than the projections. Estimates are only estimates no question there, but the potential problems with the official count seem so severe that it makes me wonder if the projections end up being closer to reality.

Alas, there's not much that can be done regardless. The numbers will be what they will be and we'll have to live with them for the next ten years, but I really wish a recount could be done. The Census Bureau really had an uphill battle all of last year.


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