Dallas Fort Worth Urban Forum

DFW Economy

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 16 Dec 2019 20:08

ImageDowntown Dallas, 09-25-19
Dallas, Las Vegas and Fort Collins, Colorado, Poised to Be Real Estate Hotbeds in Coming Years
The three markets are among the top-10 metro areas in the U.S. expected to outperform, according to the National Association of Realtors
BY YALING JIANG | ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED ON DECEMBER 11, 2019 | MANSION GLOBAL

Dallas, Las Vegas, and Fort Collins, Colorado, are among the top metro markets expected to outperform over the next three to five years, according to a report released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The report uses more than six factors, including migration, affordability and employment for new residents, to determine the top-10 performers out of 130 U.S. metro areas, said Nadia Evangelou, NAR’s senior economist and director of forecasting. The 10 areas are not ranked, she added.
...
More than a million people moved to Dallas last year, and 5% of them can afford homes at $750,000 and above, according to the report.

Article: https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/las-vegas-dallas-and-fort-collins-colorado-poised-to-be-real-estate-hotbeds-in-coming-years-210148

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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 16 Dec 2019 20:25

Cord1936 wrote:...More than a million people moved to Dallas last year, and 5% of them can afford homes at $750,000 and above, according to the report.

Article: https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/las-vegas-dallas-and-fort-collins-colorado-poised-to-be-real-estate-hotbeds-in-coming-years-210148


wow, more than a million people moved to Dallas last year. That alot.

Tnexster
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 16 Dec 2019 22:21

That sounds kinda high, I have heard the metro gets 1,000/day and have heard as high as 1,500/day and even at that number we would be just over 500,000/year.

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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 16 Dec 2019 22:35

I was being sarcastic... North Texas may be up to 150,000 a year

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Tucy
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tucy » 16 Dec 2019 23:06

OMG. Was that written by the people who did the ridership projections for Fort Worth's TexRail? It's about that much off.

FWIW, from 2016 to 2017, DFW grew by about 146,000.
From 2017 to 2018, we grew by about 132,000.

And those are total growth, a big chunk of which is natural increase (births over deaths).

Huge growth, but waasayyyyy short of 1 million per year.

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muncien
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby muncien » 17 Dec 2019 10:07

They said more than a million 'moved' to Dallas last year... I don't think they are talking net gains... So, 850,000 moved out, I suppose...
"He doesn't know how to use the three seashells..."

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Tucy
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tucy » 17 Dec 2019 11:06

muncien wrote:They said more than a million 'moved' to Dallas last year... I don't think they are talking net gains... So, 850,000 moved out, I suppose...


LOL Nice try. It would actually be 900,000 or so moving out. Around 40% of our growth has been natural increase. So the net in-migration would be about 80,000. 1 million in -- 920,000 out. Didn't happen.

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muncien
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby muncien » 17 Dec 2019 11:16

Tucy wrote:
muncien wrote:They said more than a million 'moved' to Dallas last year... I don't think they are talking net gains... So, 850,000 moved out, I suppose...


LOL Nice try. It would actually be 900,000 or so moving out. Around 40% of our growth has been natural increase. So the net in-migration would be about 80,000. 1 million in -- 920,000 out. Didn't happen.


I wasn't really trying to make a point about how many came here vs left. Just trying to figure out how they got the million. Surely, it has to be based on something, right?
"He doesn't know how to use the three seashells..."

Tnexster
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 17 Dec 2019 12:31

Tucy wrote:OMG. Was that written by the people who did the ridership projections for Fort Worth's TexRail? It's about that much off.

FWIW, from 2016 to 2017, DFW grew by about 146,000.
From 2017 to 2018, we grew by about 132,000.

And those are total growth, a big chunk of which is natural increase (births over deaths).

Huge growth, but waasayyyyy short of 1 million per year.


This is much more realistic, and I think the statewide number is 1,000 per day.

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Tucy
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tucy » 17 Dec 2019 12:58

muncien wrote:
Tucy wrote:
muncien wrote:They said more than a million 'moved' to Dallas last year... I don't think they are talking net gains... So, 850,000 moved out, I suppose...


LOL Nice try. It would actually be 900,000 or so moving out. Around 40% of our growth has been natural increase. So the net in-migration would be about 80,000. 1 million in -- 920,000 out. Didn't happen.


I wasn't really trying to make a point about how many came here vs left. Just trying to figure out how they got the million. Surely, it has to be based on something, right?


It is based entirely on sloppy journalism. Anyone vaguely aware of the world around them should have known that number was probably not correct, and done some fact-checking before publishing it.

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flyswatter
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby flyswatter » 17 Dec 2019 16:31

Is it possible the number is amount of house sales that closed across the area? Still seems like a super exaggerated number, but it's probably higher than whatever the number of people who relocated here is.

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Tucy
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tucy » 17 Dec 2019 17:09

flyswatter wrote:Is it possible the number is amount of house sales that closed across the area? Still seems like a super exaggerated number, but it's probably higher than whatever the number of people who relocated here is.


No. There is no chance whatsoever that 1 million houses were sold in DFW in one year. The number of homes sold in one year is probably a little less than 150,000, or in that neighborhood.

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 09 Jan 2020 14:34

ImageThe Downtown Dallas urban core as seen from the Dallas Design District, from Irving Boulevard a few blocks north of Wycliff Avenue, 11-18-19

Office absorption in North Texas hits three-year high to end 2019
By Ryan Salchert – Staff Writer, Dallas Business Journal, Jan. 8, 2020

A strong fourth quarter, boasting nearly 1.5 million square feet of net absorption, helped the local market end on a three year high for office leasing, according to CBRE.

Nearly 3.5 million square feet of net absorption occurred in North Texas's office market in 2019, a majority of that was thanks to new Class A office space.

Since the beginning of the decade, the market saw 31 million square feet of net absorption, not bad considering the decade started in the Great Recession.
...
Rents remain the highest in the Uptown/Turtle Creek submarket, where space averages $45.94 FSG.
...
Article: https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news ... s_headline

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Hannibal Lecter
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Hannibal Lecter » 21 Jan 2020 22:46

Dallas-Fort Worth ranks third in the world for data centers

Dallas-Fort Worth ranks as the third-largest data center market in a new international comparison.

Commercial property firm Cushman & Wakefield looked at data center projects and demand around the world for its study.

More than $100 billion has been invested in data center projects in the past decade, and D-FW has been one of the fastest-growing markets.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/rea ... a-centers/

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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 22 Jan 2020 06:14

...one of these days, somebody is going to come up with a new kind of computer that renders hundreds of billions of dollar investments in data centers obsolete.

Hopefully, these server warehouse buildings will be easily converted into something else.

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The_Overdog
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby The_Overdog » 22 Jan 2020 08:44

...one of these days, somebody is going to come up with a new kind of computer that renders hundreds of billions of dollar investments in data centers obsolete.


The company I work for was looking to sell a data center to one of the top cloud computing companies -in their home market - and it was built 7 years old and the building was too out of date for them to be worth buying and upgrading.

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jetnd87
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby jetnd87 » 14 Feb 2020 09:15

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/rea ... igh-rises/

Apparently DFW has 20 high-rise apartment buildings in the works right now. Tbh, that's less than I thought, but maybe RealPage is being stricter with their definition. And while DFW leads the nation in overall apartment building, we're tied for 7th (with Denver) in number of high-rises being built, behind the following:

- NYC: 61
- LA: 55
- Seattle: 44
- Miami: 34
- Chicago: 26
- Houston: 25

Reactions to this?

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TNWE
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby TNWE » 14 Feb 2020 16:29

jetnd87 wrote:https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2020/02/14/dallas-apartment-market-soars-with-more-than-a-dozen-high-rises/

Apparently DFW has 20 high-rise apartment buildings in the works right now. Tbh, that's less than I thought, but maybe RealPage is being stricter with their definition. And while DFW leads the nation in overall apartment building, we're tied for 7th (with Denver) in number of high-rises being built, behind the following:

- NYC: 61
- LA: 55
- Seattle: 44
- Miami: 34
- Chicago: 26
- Houston: 25

Reactions to this?


Based on the prices AMLI is seeking for their Fountain Place skyscraper, I'm not surprised that a smaller fraction of new units are high-rise. I just can't see the DFW market being able to absorb that many units at the price point required for new high-rise construction. Land remains (relatively) cheap and abundant in Dallas, so 4-6 story stick frame donuts are still the flavor of the day, especially when so many newcomers to the city like their cars and consider transit access a "nice to have" and not a "must have."

Tnexster
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 15 Feb 2020 11:32

20 seems like a low number for all of DFW.

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 15 Feb 2020 11:34

Dallas tops Sydney, San Francisco and Hong Kong as commercial property investment cities
More than $10 billion in local deals were reported in JLL’s world ranking.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/rea ... nt-cities/

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mrmandalay
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby mrmandalay » 18 Feb 2020 18:41

Tnexster wrote:Dallas tops Sydney, San Francisco and Hong Kong as commercial property investment cities
More than $10 billion in local deals were reported in JLL’s world ranking.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/rea ... nt-cities/


Fun fact- DFW's economy is nearly as large as greater Sydney and Hong Kong combined.

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Tucy
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tucy » 19 Feb 2020 16:12

mrmandalay wrote:
Tnexster wrote:Dallas tops Sydney, San Francisco and Hong Kong as commercial property investment cities
More than $10 billion in local deals were reported in JLL’s world ranking.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/rea ... nt-cities/


Fun fact- DFW's economy is nearly as large as greater Sydney and Hong Kong combined.


It would be more fun if it were true. ;-)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... eas_by_GDP

DPatel304
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby DPatel304 » 19 Feb 2020 17:00

A little off topic, but it's funny that a year or two ago, we were all talking about an economic slowdown. I suppose a slowdown is inevitable and anything can happen, but I'm honestly (pleasantly) surprised at how much construction we are still seeing to this day.

Tnexster
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 19 Feb 2020 17:55

DPatel304 wrote:A little off topic, but it's funny that a year or two ago, we were all talking about an economic slowdown. I suppose a slowdown is inevitable and anything can happen, but I'm honestly (pleasantly) surprised at how much construction we are still seeing to this day.


People been talking about a slowdown on here for years......

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mrmandalay
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby mrmandalay » 23 Feb 2020 22:12

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183808/gmp-of-the-20-biggest-metro-areas/
Forecasted 2020 DFW GDP is $620B^

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/melbourne-closes-on-sydney-as-nation-s-economic-powerhouse-20191215-p53k2h.html
The Sydney Morning Herald listed Sydney's 2018-2019 GDP at $461B AUD ($304B USD). From 2019-2021 Sydney's GDP is forecasted to only grow from $311B to $324B. Miami is expected to surpass Sydney's economic output by 2035.^

https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/gdp
Hong Kong's GDP was around $363B in 2018. However, HK went into recession in 2019 and is expected to stay that way throughout 2020.^

The wiki table is dated, see the sources above. DFW's GDP might not equal the combined economic might of Sydney and Hong Kong right this second, but it could very well get there in as little as 2-3 years.


Did I cherry pick those sources? Absolutely. (difficult to find current data on this). Am I unbiased on the matter? Not at all. Am I only focusing on raw GDP size and neglecting other important variables? Undoubtedly.

I really just wanted to point out how the size of DFW's economy compares to other areas from that article. Hong Kong is one of the most expensive real estate markets and amongst the largest ports/financial centers in the world, yet their GDP represents a fraction of DFW's total economic output. Remarkably, for the last several years, DFW has boasted a higher GDP than SHANGHAI.

It's hard not to speculate when/if DFW will become a major international financial center in the 21st century. The fact of the matter is Dallas doesn't have a stock exchange or a major international investment banks lining the streets. However, Dallas is already the second largest financial services hub in the nation (by total jobs) and the sector obviously continues to grow at a ridiculous pace. How about Charles Schwab, the third largest asset management firm in the world, adding to that critical mass? Hopefully it's only a matter of time until we see someone like Deutsche or UBS set up major operations in DFW. Our area is in position to rival/surpass current world class cities in plenty of categories

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Tivo_Kenevil
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 24 Feb 2020 11:28

DFW has financial services jobs. But they're not the client facing roles or IB jobs. Most are back end supporting roles.
They probably will never be leaders in this area, so much of that is concentrated in the East Coast.

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CaptainJilliams
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby CaptainJilliams » 25 Feb 2020 08:56

Dallas ranked #9 on the WSJ's Hottest Job Market List for 2019.

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily/stori ... ob-markets

DPatel304
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby DPatel304 » 25 Feb 2020 10:07

Is that ranking Dallas proper, or DFW? #9 seems pretty low, to be honest.

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tanzoak
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tanzoak » 25 Feb 2020 10:12

Tnexster wrote:
DPatel304 wrote:A little off topic, but it's funny that a year or two ago, we were all talking about an economic slowdown. I suppose a slowdown is inevitable and anything can happen, but I'm honestly (pleasantly) surprised at how much construction we are still seeing to this day.


People been talking about a slowdown on here for years......


New construction in the Dallas definitely did slow down from its peak in 2015-2016. It's not that it's bad now, it's just not particularly good.

(Data is for residential building permits from the Census Building Permits Survey, through Dec 2019)

Image

Regionally, though, the metroplex has continued its relentlessly fast growth. Since February 2017, metroplex growth has outpaced Dallas growth.

Image

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jetnd87
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby jetnd87 » 25 Feb 2020 10:35

One thing that I've noticed is just how many projects have been announced, renderings released, (in some instances) fences put up, etc. but no dirt has been moved. Not entirely sure what to make of it, aside my from impatience.

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CaptainJilliams
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby CaptainJilliams » 26 Feb 2020 08:47

Dallas Ranks #9 on Milken Institute's Best Performing Cities of 2020

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... 20-Ranking

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jetnd87
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby jetnd87 » 27 Feb 2020 16:05

Not really sure where to post this so I'll post it here...https://www.dmagazine.com/business-econ ... n-density/

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Hannibal Lecter
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Hannibal Lecter » 27 Feb 2020 16:39

^ TL;DR version: Guy who builds high rise residential buildings likes high rise residential buildings.

I45Tex
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby I45Tex » 27 Feb 2020 19:08

Hannibal Lecter wrote:^ TL;DR version: Guy who builds high rise residential buildings likes high rise residential buildings.


Much of the article is implying that if citizens don't want taxes to increase and services to plateau, then citizens can't provide services to an area without splitting that ongoing cost among more people. Surprised that that argument doesn't mean enough to a hardnoser like yourself to bear mentioning.

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jetnd87
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby jetnd87 » 27 Feb 2020 20:10

Hannibal Lecter wrote:^ TL;DR version: Guy who builds high rise residential buildings likes high rise residential buildings.


Yea, not sure what the issue is with high-density development in an urban environment...

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Mr. Amsterdam
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Mr. Amsterdam » 28 Feb 2020 08:55

jetnd87 wrote:
Hannibal Lecter wrote:^ TL;DR version: Guy who builds high rise residential buildings likes high rise residential buildings.


Yea, not sure what the issue is with high-density development in an urban environment...


It reads like an Onion article: City Dweller Hates Living Near People.

bUt My FaVoRiTe PaRkInG sPoT...
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homeworld1031tx
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby homeworld1031tx » 10 Mar 2020 09:37

With the recent cratering in oil prices, how do you guys think this will affect the DFW and Texas economies? Most of the reports that I've seen state that with oil at the 30 bucks a barrel range, nearly all new wells are unprofitable to drill.

I know that DFW isn't as closely tied to the oil industry and Houston, but this will no doubt be significant if this low price level is sustained. The cratering in the stock prices of the energy industry just wiped out a lot of wealth-on-paper as well.

itsjrd1964
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby itsjrd1964 » 10 Mar 2020 13:16

Ordinarily, it would be a help to spring break and pre-summer travelers to have gas at less than $2/gallon (at many stations), but now with the sickness-of-the-moment messing up nearly everything these days, there won't be a whole lot of moneymaking for a while at either end of the pipeline, I'm afraid.

itsjrd1964
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby itsjrd1964 » 10 Mar 2020 13:21

I just looked at the forecast for the next month at the hotel where I work, and every night but 2, we will be projected to be at less than 50% occupancy. The hotel company even has a new request code for those with reservations wanting to cancel based on the coronavirus situation.

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homeworld1031tx
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby homeworld1031tx » 10 Mar 2020 13:29

itsjrd1964 wrote:I just looked at the forecast for the next month at the hotel where I work, and every night but 2, we will be projected to be at less than 50% occupancy. The hotel company even has a new request code for those with reservations wanting to cancel based on the coronavirus situation.



Very interesting. Understand that this might be private, but what would you expect the average occupancy rates to be otherwise minus the health scare?

itsjrd1964
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby itsjrd1964 » 10 Mar 2020 14:27

I wish I had that info, but I wasn't working there this time last year. Based on an average I've seen since being there, a ballpark of at least 80%-90%. But my property is an extended-stay type, and it fluctuates some. We were busy during the Fair/Texas-OU, and expected to drop off some after that, but then the tornado hit, and we ended up housing several north Dallas homeowners.

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CTroyMathis
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby CTroyMathis » 16 Mar 2020 10:06

How bad is it at hotels and restaurants currently or projected for the next 60 days, any of you who have an internal anecdote about it. I know one hotel on McKinney is taking a massive hit banquet/conference/sport teams side.

itsjrd1964
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby itsjrd1964 » 16 Mar 2020 10:51

I am currently working for an extended-stay chain, and other employee's hours have already been cut. I am thankful and fortunate that mine have not. Our occupancy has slid steadily since awareness of the virus. Last week we were in the 40-50% range, this week we are in the 30s. The forecast through the end of next month is not any better. If my hours are cut, I don't know what my options would be if none of the other hotels are doing any better. They wouldn't have any openings. There's nothing happening soon events/groups-wise that would help with occupancy, as no big gatherings are allowed. And we have all these other announced or under construction hotels in the pipeline, don't know yet what will happen with them. A new Drury Plaza Hotel has just opened or is due to open in Richardson by CityLine, and I haven't seen a car parked there yet. I need to reach out to my hotel friends/colleagues and see how their properties are--likely not much better.

itsjrd1964
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby itsjrd1964 » 16 Mar 2020 11:04

Here's a running list of area business closings and changes I found:

https://www.wfaa.com/mobile/article/new ... ec94d1d65a

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CTroyMathis
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby CTroyMathis » 17 Mar 2020 05:09

Sad to see the Ritz-Carlton officially get awarded a Forbes 5-Star rating and then tank before the high wears off.

Thanks for all the info.

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CTroyMathis
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby CTroyMathis » 17 Mar 2020 05:12

And, I got the DFW restaurant news later yesterday via text from a Savor hostess.

Tnexster
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 17 Mar 2020 14:48

Apparently during this crisis there has been an uptick in relocation inquiries coming into the metro so that continues to march forward despite the virus fears.

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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 17 Mar 2020 16:24

^interesting

itsjrd1964
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby itsjrd1964 » 18 Mar 2020 03:42

My hotel's GM is now telling us, no more breakfast buffet. When we use up what's left we will go to grab-and-go bags. Apparently cheaper for the hotel, and will encourage guests to go back to their rooms instead of lingering in a big group in the lobby. The GM said also we have passed below the point of making any money right now. All QA inspections due (including ours) have been put off indefinitely. We keep a database of retail/restaurant nearby listings at the desk (in lieu of a concierge) but now, I'm not sure which ones that we can tell guests about that are left that aren't closed, or can do alternative service (drive-thru, drive-by, delivery, etc.).

Also, the few Lyft/Uber drivers I've seen lately all tell me their business is way off. Hardly any airport runs, hardly any social, out-and-about, or grab-a-bite folks either.

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homeworld1031tx
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby homeworld1031tx » 18 Mar 2020 09:35

Appreciate the in person insights into your industry. Please keep them coming during this very bizarre event, and most importantly, I wish you and your colleagues the best of luck getting through this.


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