tanzoak wrote:Data for December 2016 is in, and ouch. Building permits issued for only 220 total units (only 96 multi-fam) in Dallas for the month. That's the lowest number in over 2 years (Nov 2014). The 5-month total of 3547 for Aug-Dec'16 is the lowest since Sep'14-Jan'15.
On the other hand, overall metro-wide permitting is continuing at the same pace as it has been.
We're still doing fine, of course, but pretty clear that developers are taking a bit of a breather to see how all these upcoming in-city completions are absorbed.
tanzoak wrote:City of Dallas construction is dropping through the floor. We've gotten 7,762 units (5,938 multifam) issued permits over the past 12 months. Compare that to a year ago, when we had issued permits for 13,525 units (12,091 multifam) over the previous 12 months. We haven't had as slow of a year since 2014.
On the other hand, metro-wide construction continues to boom, achieving a cycle high of 60,051 units permitted over the past 12 months. Especially impressive considering the contraction in Dallas city construction.
willyk wrote:ULI/PwC’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate report has placed Dallas in the top five most promising real estate markets in the United States for the last four years. The report highlights massive job and population growth, relatively low cost of living/business, access to space and access to talent as the big drivers for Dallas’ rise. A business-friendly environment, stable fundamentals and the gradual emergence of meaningful barriers to entry have driven Dallas through the longest economic boom in recent memory.
Matt777 wrote:In my opinion, any slowdown is because of pricing, not demand. More of a pricing correction than a slowdown in demand. People are still moving here in droves and will need housing. The problem is, supply has finally caught up with demand and will bring the market into a more reasonable/healthy supply/demand balance. The reason prices skyrocketed is because the 2008 recession caused construction to halt for a few years, then demand spiked, and prices had nowhere to go but up.
I feel bad for the people that are about to see a 10-15% correction in value on their newly purchased abodes, but that's what happens when you buy in a frothy market. I sold my last property for a nice profit because I saw this coming. I hope to buy again after the price correction happens.
My prediction: a 10-15% correction in pricing (in most big US markets. Some markets +/-). More unsubstantiated doomsday articles. Builders may slam on the brakes and regroup, but I think they'll adjust and find ways to develop lower priced properties.
If there's a steep national economic recession, all bets are off.
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