Harwood District: Bleu Ciel (390 FT / 33 ST)

[thelivingworld]

I'm seeing a staggering run up in condo prices in the two years in Central Dallas. Around 25% increase or so. When we think about two years ago when One Uptown failed to successfully convert to condos the landscape has totally changed. In Old East Dallas it makes more sense to do townhouses as they pretty much have it down to a science and the ease of the residential building code vs commercial (International Building Code). Also if people are giving up extra square footage they want walkable retail and amenities and public transit which are still developing.

Uptown and Oak Lawn have the most condos the vast majority of which are over 20 years. Lots of walkable retail, density, and more favorable zoning and there were plenty of single family lots at the time to convert but also a geographic limit to expansion to incentivize building at higher densities. You basically need the perfect storm with the long statue of limitations of being able to sue the developer in Texas. Maybe the Cedars will get a condo boom at some point. Downtown is controlled by a few land owners so probably not there.

[Semper454]

... Also if people are giving up extra square footage they want walkable retail and amenities and public transit which are still developing.

I disagree that this doesn't exist already. Between Whole Foods, CVS, Tom Thumb, etc... You have certainly livable retail within easy walking distance. Aside from major big box stores (almost all major cities have spotty coverage of these in their core, even parts of NYC), you have walkable access to pretty much all the essentials. Additionally, we're talking about an income bracket that leans heavily on delivery. I just don't buy that "not being able to walk to Target" is what's not selling condos here.

Transit is separate, of course. Certainly we are still lacking there, but I'm also not convinced the average high-middle and up income Dallas resident is really that interested in public transit anyway.

[tamtagon]

Instead of terminating at I-35, maybe DNT should terminate into the design district near victory park.

[thelivingworld]

... Also if people are giving up extra square footage they want walkable retail and amenities and public transit which are still developing.

I disagree that this doesn't exist already. Between Whole Foods, CVS, Tom Thumb, etc... You have certainly livable retail within easy walking distance. Aside from major big box stores (almost all major cities have spotty coverage of these in their core, even parts of NYC), you have walkable access to pretty much all the essentials. Additionally, we're talking about an income bracket that leans heavily on delivery. I just don't buy that "not being able to walk to Target" is what's not selling condos here.

Transit is separate, of course. Certainly we are still lacking there, but I'm also not convinced the average high-middle and up income Dallas resident is really that interested in public transit anyway.

There was a condo boom around Victory Park and Lower Uptown around 2004-2008. The absolute cheapest of these today is 500K with a $1000 monthly HOA the majority being much more expensive. There's a limited market for these. With competition with new office construction non-ultra luxury is priced out in that part of town with land is at a premium now. They really need to build out walkable retail areas. The Quad, 2500 Cedar Springs, North End are looking to fill in this need. Perception of stability of neighborhood I think is also important. The perception of Uptown having gone downhill was prevalent until just recently even though it was really just a natural progression of neighborhood development cycles. That really affected the ability to sell One Uptown I believe. There was constant complaints on Nextdoor about Turkey DAM just across the street and crime and such, the usual complaints on there. Also 5-over-1's didn't exist until the late nineties and a bad implementation of those, just their presence has the potential to kill street activity on an entire block (The Uptown Special). I'm sure there are other specific market based reasons why they aren't being built more. I do think they would sell though in specific areas if they were actually built or offered as part of a apartment or office to condo conversion at the right price.

[Tnexster]

Interesting how well this one does down in Houston. Not even open yet and appears to be selling out.

Allen Condo/Hotel Tower Opens Next Month

The Houston Business Journal reports the building’s units are already 80% sold, and only four of the 22 penthouses remain available.

https://www.connectcre.com/stories/alle ... ext-month/

[thelivingworld]

And in places like Miami and Toronto and Vancouver and maybe it's probably true in Austin as well it's investors buying up a lot of the condos based on anticipation that prices will continue to increase leading to more condo building and we really should be striving to be the slow growth smart growth, to use Chad West's term gentlefication city where the growth can be just as much but can be more evenly distributed around the city. I'm sure the people actually buying to live in also are getting in on the game too and feel confident the prices will continue to increase as well. If that means fewer condo buildings get built due to the absence of a speculation bubble positive feedback loops then so be it.

[Tucy]

August, 2023

Two units sold. 98 sold in 69 months (1.42 per month) 60 remaining.

Sell-out projection (at that pace of sales): 9 years, 4 months.

So far this calendar year, they are selling at a little more than half the overall rate (0.875 per month). At this rate their sellout period will extend to 11 years,6 months.

[flyswatter]

Not a complete apples to apples comparison but most of Buckhead in Atlanta is rather pedestrian hostile and the building is next to a very busy 6 lane road.

https://atlanta.urbanize.city/post/the-dillon-buckhead-condo-tower-reports-unprecedented-sales

[R1070]

I don't know why this building never fixed the lighting on the glass fins on top. Seems like they'd want to keep the building in tip top shape. That just seems like there's trouble in paradise. I like the proximity of this building to the Katy Trail, but that area of Harwood needs to build up more before this section is more appealing.

[Tucy I]

September, 2023

Five units sold. 103 sold in 70 months (1.47 per month) 55 remaining.

Sell-out projection (at that pace of sales): 9 years.

[Tucy I]

October, 2023

Three units sold. 106 sold in 71 months (1.49 per month) 52 remaining.

Sell-out projection (at that pace of sales): 8 years, 10 months.

[Tucy I]

November, 2023

One unit sold. 107 sold in 72 months (1.49 per month) 51 remaining.

Sell-out projection (at that pace of sales): 8 years, 11 months.

[Tucy I]

December, 2023

One unit sold. 108 sold in 73 months (1.49 per month) 50 remaining.

Sell-out projection (at that pace of sales): 8 years, 11 months.

[Tucy I]

January, 2024

Zero sold. 108 sold in 74 months (1.49 per month) 50 remaining.

Sell-out projection (at that pace of sales): 9 years, 1 month.

[Tucy I]

February, 2024

One sold. 109 sold in 75 months (1.45 per month) 49 remaining.

Sell-out projection (at that pace of sales): 9 years, 1 month.

[Tucy I]

March, 2024

Two sold. 111 sold in 76 months (1.46 per month) 47 remaining.

Sell-out projection (at that pace of sales): 9 years, 1 month.